| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Virginia | 7-48 | 1386.1 | -30.8 | 1355.3 | 43.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Charleston Southern | 13-0 | 1355.3 | +0.0 | 1355.3 | 30.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | East Carolina | 0-38 | 1355.3 | -42.3 | 1313.0 | 41.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | South Alabama | 38-20 | 1313.0 | +59.4 | 1372.4 | 37.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 7-47 | 1372.4 | -21.7 | 1350.7 | 32.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 23-8 | 1350.7 | +30.0 | 1380.7 | 57.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | App State | 45-37 | 1380.7 | +58.9 | 1439.6 | 37.8% |
| 11 | Oct 30 2025 | W | Marshall | 44-27 | 1439.6 | +53.1 | 1492.7 | 30.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Georgia State | 40-27 | 1492.7 | +7.8 | 1500.5 | 87.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 40-45 | 1500.5 | -46.3 | 1454.2 | 62.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | South Carolina | 7-51 | 1454.2 | -20.7 | 1433.5 | 30.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | James Madison | 10-59 | 1433.5 | -17.7 | 1415.8 | 16.1% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 14-23 | 1415.8 | -48.9 | 1366.9 | 57.5% |